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Tanzania braces for heavy rains as El Niño raises flood risks

3 mins read

Tanzania braces for heavy rains as El Niño raises flood risks

Habari za Dharura

October 24, 2026 Admin0

Dar es Salaam. Tanzania is bracing for wetter-than-usual conditions during the first half of the November 2026 to April 2027 rainy season, with the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) warning of possible flooding, crop losses and transport disruptions.

The outlook points to very strong El Niño conditions between November and January, alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which are expected to increase rainfall across much of the country.

TMA Director-General Ladislaus Chang’a said the forecast should help farmers, local authorities and other sectors prepare for the potential impact of heavy rainfall.

The authority forecasts normal to above-normal rainfall in Kigoma, Tabora, Katavi, Singida, Dodoma, Njombe, Iringa, Mbeya, Songwe and Rukwa regions, as well as southern Morogoro. Ruvuma, Mtwara and Lindi are also expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

“The first half of the season, from November 2026 to January 2027, is expected to be wetter than the second half,” TMA said in its seasonal outlook.

Rain is expected to begin in parts of Tabora, Katavi, Kigoma, Mtwara and Lindi towards the end of October before spreading to other areas with a single rainy season in November.

Most areas are expected to see the season end in the third or fourth week of April 2027, although some western and southwestern areas may continue receiving rainfall into early May.

The forecast raises concerns about flooding, waterlogging and damage to agricultural infrastructure. Prolonged rainfall could also disrupt harvesting, crop drying, storage and transportation.

Excessive moisture may increase crop diseases, particularly in potatoes, sunflowers, beans, sesame, fruits and vegetables.

Farmers have been advised to prepare their fields early, use suitable seeds, improve drainage and follow guidance from agricultural extension officers. Contour farming and raised beds could also help reduce soil erosion and waterlogging.

TMA urged farmers to plant and apply appropriate agricultural inputs in good time while following regular weather updates.

Beyond agriculture, rising water levels in rivers and reservoirs could affect water supplies, energy infrastructure and mining operations. Heavy rainfall could also damage roads, bridges and railway infrastructure, disrupt flights and delay cargo operations at ports.

Flooding and stagnant water may contaminate drinking water and increase the risk of waterborne and mosquito-borne diseases. Health facilities have been advised to prepare for possible outbreaks and maintain services where transport routes are disrupted.

Livestock keepers could benefit from improved pasture and water availability, although wetter conditions may increase the risk of diseases such as Rift Valley fever and foot rot.

Flooding could also push wildlife into neighbouring communities, increasing the risk of human-wildlife conflict and disease transmission between wild and domestic animals.

Local authorities and disaster management committees have been urged to improve drainage, strengthen preparedness plans and ensure communities receive timely warnings.

TMA stressed that the seasonal outlook provides a broad indication of expected rainfall rather than predicting conditions in every location or on every day.

The authority urged the public to follow its daily, 10-day and monthly weather updates as it continues monitoring weather systems and issuing advisories.

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